Foreglen (@1.57) vs Castledawson (@2.75)

Our Prediction:

Foreglen will win

Foreglen – Castledawson Match Prediction | 05-10-2019 12:00

Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, whichmeans that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. Each ward's result is scaled,whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general electionturnout. There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to implygeneral election results ward-by-ward. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

The winners of the Derry Championship qualify to represent their county in the Ulster Intermediate Club Football Championship, the winners of which progress to the All-Ireland Intermediate Club Football Championship. The Derry Intermediate Football Championship (currently also known for sponsorship reasons as the M&L Contracts Derry Intermediate Football Championship) is an annual competition between the intermediate (second tier) Gaelic football clubs in Derry GAA.

The format was changed once again for the 2009 Championship.[3] The Derry Competitions Control Committee accepted a proposal to scrap the group stage and introduce a "backdoor" system.[3] The 16 clubs play in the first round.


The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ulster Mid at the general election of 2017. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat,and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards,with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

To correct for this, we also use Census demography tomake an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences betweenthe ward and the seat overall. Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed,the local election results can understate a party's true support.